Post by Thetaloops on Feb 1, 2007 10:03:00 GMT -5
The evidence continues to come in at an ever increasing speed.
Warming 'very likely' due to man, report to say
Negotiators also tie bigger storms to warming; other details still debated
John Brecher / MSNBC.com
Sea level rise scenarios are based largely on projections of melting land-based glaciers and ice sheets, like this river of glacial ice flowing through part of the Trans-Antarctic Mountain Range on Antarctica.
PARIS - Officials from 113 countries agreed Thursday that a much-awaited report will say that recent global warming was “very likely” caused by human activity — a significant change from an earlier report but less than the “virtually certain” phrase that some had championed.
The officials also approved language that said an increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone strength since 1970 “more likely than not” can be attributed to man-made warming, according to delegates Leonard Fields of Barbados and Cedric Nelom of Surinam.
In its last report in 2001, the same panel had said there was not enough evidence to make such a conclusion.
Dozens of scientists and bureaucrats are editing the new report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in closed-door meetings in Paris. The report's executive summary for policymakers, which must be unanimously approved, is to be released Friday.
Sources at the talks said the IPCC approved the term “very likely” in Thursday’s sessions. That means they agree that there is a 90 percent chance that humans are aggravating any natural warming by burning fossil fuels, which release carbon into the atmosphere and add to the greenhouse effect around Earth.
The last U.N. report, in 2001, said global warming was “likely” caused by human activity. There had been speculation that the participants might try to change the wording this time to “virtually certain,” which means a 99 percent chance.
The new report is expected to predict that global temperatures could increase between 2.5 to 10.4 degrees by the year 2100 unless stronger efforts are made to reduce carbon emissions from vehicles, power plants and other industry.
Hurricane element
Fields, whose country is on the path of many hurricanes, said “it is very important” that the language on storms and warming is so strong this time. “Insurance companies watch the language, too.”
The panel did note that the increase in stronger storms differs in various parts of the globe, but that the storms that strike the Americas are global warming-influenced, according to another participant.
Fields said the report notes that most of the changes have been seen in the North Atlantic.
The stand is a marked departure from a November 2006 statement by the World Meteorological Organization, which helped found the IPCC.
The meteorological organization, after contentious debate, said it could not link past stronger storms to global warming. The debate about whether stronger hurricanes can be linked to global warming has been dividing a scientific community that is otherwise largely united in agreeing that mankind is behind recent global warming.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Kerry Emanuel, who pioneered much of the research linking global warming to an uptick in hurricane strength, looked at the original language in an IPCC draft and called it “a pretty strong statement.”
“I think we’ve seen a pretty clear signal in the Atlantic,” Emanuel said. The increase in Atlantic hurricane strength “is so beautifully correlated with sea surface there can’t be much doubt that there’s a relationship with sea surface temperature.”
But U.S. National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea has long disagreed with that premise. While he would not comment on the IPCC decision, Landsea pointed to the meteorological organization’s statement last fall.
Sea levels debated
Negotiators on Wednesday started discussing the trickiest issue: predictions of rising sea levels. Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate how much the sea level will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica.
In early drafts, scientists predicted a sea level rise of no more than 23 inches by 2100, but that does not include the ice sheet melts. Many scientists, particularly those in the United States, said that may be too low an estimate and that the computer models that estimate sea level rise do not take into account ice melt.
The authors of the early drafts are changing what they wrote to try to get some of that concern in, Petersen said.
“The question is,” said Arthur Petersen, who represents the Dutch Environment Ministry, “how do you compute this factor that you really don’t have?”
U.S. 'more constructive'
One participant, who asked not to be identified because the talks are confidential, said there was a noticeable change in the U.S. delegation, which some accused of hanging up the 2001 talks: “The U.S. is much more constructive.”
The hang-ups this time are over using words precisely, delegates say. The report is being edited in English, then must be translated into five other languages.
“It has been rather difficult, trying to agree on some of the language,” said Amie Jarra Declerq, a Gambian government representative, without giving examples.
© 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Warming 'very likely' due to man, report to say
Negotiators also tie bigger storms to warming; other details still debated
John Brecher / MSNBC.com
Sea level rise scenarios are based largely on projections of melting land-based glaciers and ice sheets, like this river of glacial ice flowing through part of the Trans-Antarctic Mountain Range on Antarctica.
PARIS - Officials from 113 countries agreed Thursday that a much-awaited report will say that recent global warming was “very likely” caused by human activity — a significant change from an earlier report but less than the “virtually certain” phrase that some had championed.
The officials also approved language that said an increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone strength since 1970 “more likely than not” can be attributed to man-made warming, according to delegates Leonard Fields of Barbados and Cedric Nelom of Surinam.
In its last report in 2001, the same panel had said there was not enough evidence to make such a conclusion.
Dozens of scientists and bureaucrats are editing the new report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in closed-door meetings in Paris. The report's executive summary for policymakers, which must be unanimously approved, is to be released Friday.
Sources at the talks said the IPCC approved the term “very likely” in Thursday’s sessions. That means they agree that there is a 90 percent chance that humans are aggravating any natural warming by burning fossil fuels, which release carbon into the atmosphere and add to the greenhouse effect around Earth.
The last U.N. report, in 2001, said global warming was “likely” caused by human activity. There had been speculation that the participants might try to change the wording this time to “virtually certain,” which means a 99 percent chance.
The new report is expected to predict that global temperatures could increase between 2.5 to 10.4 degrees by the year 2100 unless stronger efforts are made to reduce carbon emissions from vehicles, power plants and other industry.
Hurricane element
Fields, whose country is on the path of many hurricanes, said “it is very important” that the language on storms and warming is so strong this time. “Insurance companies watch the language, too.”
The panel did note that the increase in stronger storms differs in various parts of the globe, but that the storms that strike the Americas are global warming-influenced, according to another participant.
Fields said the report notes that most of the changes have been seen in the North Atlantic.
The stand is a marked departure from a November 2006 statement by the World Meteorological Organization, which helped found the IPCC.
The meteorological organization, after contentious debate, said it could not link past stronger storms to global warming. The debate about whether stronger hurricanes can be linked to global warming has been dividing a scientific community that is otherwise largely united in agreeing that mankind is behind recent global warming.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Kerry Emanuel, who pioneered much of the research linking global warming to an uptick in hurricane strength, looked at the original language in an IPCC draft and called it “a pretty strong statement.”
“I think we’ve seen a pretty clear signal in the Atlantic,” Emanuel said. The increase in Atlantic hurricane strength “is so beautifully correlated with sea surface there can’t be much doubt that there’s a relationship with sea surface temperature.”
But U.S. National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea has long disagreed with that premise. While he would not comment on the IPCC decision, Landsea pointed to the meteorological organization’s statement last fall.
Sea levels debated
Negotiators on Wednesday started discussing the trickiest issue: predictions of rising sea levels. Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate how much the sea level will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica.
In early drafts, scientists predicted a sea level rise of no more than 23 inches by 2100, but that does not include the ice sheet melts. Many scientists, particularly those in the United States, said that may be too low an estimate and that the computer models that estimate sea level rise do not take into account ice melt.
The authors of the early drafts are changing what they wrote to try to get some of that concern in, Petersen said.
“The question is,” said Arthur Petersen, who represents the Dutch Environment Ministry, “how do you compute this factor that you really don’t have?”
U.S. 'more constructive'
One participant, who asked not to be identified because the talks are confidential, said there was a noticeable change in the U.S. delegation, which some accused of hanging up the 2001 talks: “The U.S. is much more constructive.”
The hang-ups this time are over using words precisely, delegates say. The report is being edited in English, then must be translated into five other languages.
“It has been rather difficult, trying to agree on some of the language,” said Amie Jarra Declerq, a Gambian government representative, without giving examples.
© 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
